Tuesday, January 8, 2008

15% is technically more than a correction...

I love the media's way of soft-pedaling a problem, the stock market's dive just a technical correction. If you look how much things have changed since June, we have had a major correction.

In June of last year, the dollar was worth 1.34420 Euros. The stock market was at 13,668.11. The value of stock market point in Euros was 13668.11/1.34420 = 10168.22.

Today the dollar has dropped to 1.4716 against the euro. The stock market is at 12660. the value of the stock market index in Euros is 12660/1.4716 = 8602.88

Net difference is 1565.35, or about a 15% drop against the stock market in June. This is nearly a depression level of change.

A technical correction... a bear market is 20%

With Bernake devaluing the currency against the Euro, only a 10% change will push us into a bear market Euro has to hit around 1.60 per dollar to turn it into a bear market.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EDJI&a=05&b=1&c=2007&d=05&e=1&f=2007&g=d

http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey Buddy, was wondering if you could post a blog about the M3 monwy, history, where it's at today, ect.

Also, on a side note can you please point me to some of the places where you find most of your research/info.

thanks, your works is great

PaulG said...

Hey John, can you please give me your analysis on the M3, how it works, history, future, and whatever elese you see fit to speek about.

Thank you,

PaulG said...

Hey John, can you please give me your analysis on the M3, how it works, history, future, and whatever elese you see fit to speek about.

Thank you,

PaulG said...

Sorry, I am new and 99% blind, the PC is a new world to me

The Conservative Pagan said...

Awesome analysis. Frightening.