Saturday, January 19, 2008

US Banks are Bankrupt - Prepare for complete failure

Ok, it's worse than I thought. Here is a nice spreadsheet of the losses this quarter in the banking system. 107.8 Billion dollars. Using the fractional reserve estimates, that is a 1 TRILLION dollar loss. No wonder the Fed and The Prez are busy trying to simulate the economy by putting more money into it.

What's more interesting is that, for the first time in 50 years, the nonborrowed amount of money backing the fractional reserve system for the nation's banks is NEGATIVE. (Negative -1387K) This means, the banks are BANKRUPT and living on borrowed money.

Unless something extra-ordinary happens, the banks are going to fall over like a house of cards, dragging whatever you have with it.

Check it for yourself:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h3/Current/



Losses, Billions








Merrill Lynch22.4

Citigroup19.9

UBS14.4

Morgan Stanley9.4

HSBC7.5

Credit Agricole3.6

Deutsche bank3.2

Bank of America3

CIBC*3

Wachovia*2.7

AIG2.7

Barclays2.7

Royal Bank of Scotland2.5

Credit Suisse1.9

Bear Stearns1.9

J.P. Morgan Chase1.4

Countrywide1

Others4.6

Total107.8

*includes Q4 forecast, Source: David Gaffen, WSJ

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi John,

Have a look at Al Martin Raw's commentary. It is quite interesting now that you mention this figures. Note that it's by subscription but he does have some free articles (just scroll down) - www.almartinraw.com

Refurbsystems said...

John,

You are not far from the mark. You need to read this article from the London Telegraph. It is very revealing about what the banks are expecting. Notice the part of researching the laws of the limits the fed can take in a financial crisis. Here is the link:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/12/23/cccrisis123.xml

Anonymous said...

We need to be focusing on Martial Law and things like that. Food and servival kits, this is going to be crazy. In the 70's we had a postive trade balance and that means that we produced things, today we have an 800 billion dollar negative balance and are a consumer economy.

This has been all planned out!

What happens when Target and WallMart stop getting shipments, deflation wil not apply, this will be about pure survival if TSHTF!

This is what out Four Father Warned us about!

Niki Arinze said...

Hi, John
I was wondering when you were going to come around. You kept talking about buy gold because it is going up. My belief is that deflation is going to be the culprit. With that much credit vanishing from the economy, asset values will deflate. I think that everything will come down together, so that in the short term you will see the dollar value rise. When that happens, it will be time to diversify out of the dollar, just like every other country on the planet wants to do. Keep doing your videos and blog. I like hearing your perspective on things.

refurbsystems said...

John,

Another excellent article on how quickly things are getting out of control. From the article:

"Sovereign wealth funds stand ready to rescue banks, as they have already rescued Citigroup and UBS. But as Moody's pointed out this week, the estimated $2,500bn in lost wealth from the US house price crash is more than the entire net worth of all the sovereign wealth funds in the world."

Here is the link. Another article from England that we would never see in the US.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml;jsessionid=EZB1EC20RH5H1QFIQMGSFFOAVCBQWIV0?view=DETAILS&grid=A1YourView&xml=/money/2008/01/07/ccview107.xml

refurbsystems said...

Follow up. This is the little know article referred to in my post above which is being studied by the Fed right now. Very interesting read:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2000/200051/200051pap.pdf

Anonymous said...

access was denied to above article

refurbsystems said...

Go to this website first:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/research/staff/smalldavidh.htm

Then scroll to the bottom to get the link to the article "Nominal Policy when the short term interest rate is zero"

That will get you to the fed article everyone is reviewing. We are already seeing the first moves. Love the part about "money rain" which is not allowed by the Fed unless they package it as a giveaway tax rebate. Sound familiar?

refurbsystems said...

John,

If I read the fed paper correctly, after we have the taxcut giveaway and the short term interest rate is cut to zero, which it will be as things deteriorate, and the pumping of liquidity into the system by the fed...then the fed will be out of options. The US would then have only the option to declare war on someone (Iran) and kickstart the economy.

Please give us your take on the fed paper which really outlines where we are headed.

Anonymous said...

John = Joke

Most banks finance their assets through repos, banks always use leverage dumb ass