Welcome to Back of the Envelope. Or should I say, I'm back to BOE.
As you can see, it's been a rough ride for the economy. Many of the things we talked about since the blog started have come true, such as rising food prices, the (slower than anticipated) credit impact, and the economy going into a recession. Some of the things, such as the price of gold and the banking failures have either been wrong or the impact has been less than I expected.
That's part of the fun of doing back of the envelope analysis. There is a story, from Wikipedia, about doing Back of the Envelope calculations. I won't repeat it here, but the gist of it says it's a general estimate that gets you in the ballpark. Back-of-the-envelope_calculation
You might have wondered what happened to me since mid-Feb. It's much simplier than some of the emails/posting I got about it. First off, thanks everyone for your kind words. Secondly, I did not become financially ruined, I was not kidnapped by the New World Order, I did not die in an accident. (I leave that to the DC Madam and her ilk.)
I got into an accident in mid Feb. I was not hurt, but the overhead of getting a "new" (used) vehicle and dealing with the insurance took up my attention. While taking care of this, I had to switch to "Extended Work Weeks" for my job. This means, long hours. So, for the last several months, I've been working long hours and travelings. The combination of these events caused me to chose not to work on BOE. Besides, all the good stuff was already in the mainstream news.
Now, that things appear to be settling down, I think it is time to start again. The economic storm has made landfall, and we now are in the eye of the hurricane. The other side is coming to hit us, usually the back wall of a hurricane is much stronger than the front wall.
I look forward to posting again. Please drop me a line anytime.
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3 comments:
John
You are a fine person, I got a lot of information and learned quite a bit with your videos nd comments. Mas... there is a lot of people out there who really appreciate your help and send good vibes to you.
Wisho you all the best, take good care of yourself.
Hi John, what a surprise! I almost decided not to check BOE today, but, hey, just one more time (for an umpteenth time ;) Each time hoping to see you back. It's always a great pleasure to hear from you.
Here are a few of my questions/thoughts I have been considering recently:
1. Is it possible that the rampant inflation we're seeing these days with Ben Helicopter inching closer and closer to zero bips will as a side effect end up in the opposite of what the FED is aiming for, i.e., deflation.
2. Will greenback recover in any perceivable future? What would it take for it to happen?
3. How far through the foreclosure mess are we at this point? Here in NYC house prices have not been affected much. Are they going to come down to some realistic levels? Or had had we better not wish for it?
Looking forward to your regular postings.
Woj
I'm so glad you mentioned B of A purchase of Countrywide.I've heard no one "aghast at the prospect" as you or I. I'm retired and disabled and am trying to cobble together an internet business (on-line thriftshop). I believe we'll be returning to the time where each family must become self-sufficient like farmers. Thanx. I hope it will be all right to reference your presentations for educational purposes(LiveJournal)
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