Simple math.
Dollar is worth 20% less than a year ago. Last year's price 60 bucks a barrel. That means, this year, it should be 72 bucks a barrel.
That doesn't explain the 60 dollar premium on each barrel of oil. Some say it's demand from China and India. Ok, their economies grew about 10% each, so let's say it's now 87 bucks a barrel. What else? War with Iran? Problems with Nigeria? Ok, give it another 20 bucks a barrel. That's 107 or so.
130+??? It's speculation guys. It's greedy industrialists and financiers who are moving out of the real estate market and into the commodity market.
10 comments:
It's true that speculation is driving part of this -- perhaps as much of it as you indicate. However, speculative booms and busts will simply make a rising trend line jagged; they don't change the fact that deeper causes including international demand, shrinking supplies of cheaply extracted oil, and political difficulties in Iraq, Nigeria and elsewhere will remain potent. The era of cheap oil really is over, if even speculation temporarily exaggerates its effects.
The game is about up. We are seeing market manipulation by the bankers such as JP Morgan announcing Oil Market speculations driving up the prices. You are correct people are starting to move into OIL.
OIL will be used as a weapon of choice in order to lay blame on OIL exporting nations for the eventual fall of the US economy.
It is a big shell game. Most of the increase in the price of oil is actually inflation and most recently market manipulation or "speculation" by the bankers looking to profit from uncertainty.
I feel sorry for all of you people who put your trust in this economic system and in the "market". It is neither free nor open. Where do you think the 9% losses from yesterdays market disappeared to? It's clear, into the market manipulators pocket since they drive the actions of the investors in whatever direction they choose.
It is the wolves tending the flock. All the investors are trying to guage the market by the announcements of the Fed and the big Bankers in order to try and make a buck instead of looking at the real data.
To learn more about the real people behind the market and the problems of the world visit our website.
The New World Order Resistance
what do you think about this explanation for the rise in oil prices?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1RC5HXV8fY
Your analysis assumes foreign central banks are not inflating their money supplies using the exchange value of the dollar. Gold is a better point of references because it's incredibly difficult to bring more ounces onto the market. My point is that if the foreign central banks inflate their currency by 20%, then the US dollar's drop 20% drop in exchange is in reality a 40% drop.
Hmmm... I believe it's time for an update.
Trust me on this. Get into DXO now. The double bull for oil futures. It is down 90%. Oil will go up if we have: inflation, recovered economy, war or a 9/11 event worldwide. It will not if we muddle along in a protracted deflation/depression etc. What is your gut telling you. Buy things you can hold, gold, silver, oil, agriculture products etc. Get away from stuff people can do without. Bad times are coming. The signs are there to see for those who open their eyes. Quit listening to CNBC and start listening to your gut instincts.
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